What if Kerry had won?
Who wants to join me in an alternate universe for a sec? Let’s imagine that George Bush lost to John Kerry in 2004.
The final electoral college tally was Bush: 286 and Kerry: 251. All it would have taken for Kerry to win was Ohio, which Bush won by 2%. It was 118,775 votes.
But what if instead of waiting one year, The New York Times published Risen and Lichtblau’s investigative reporting on warrantless wiretapping when it was ready, before the 2004 election.
Now it’s impossible to say exactly what the effect that would have had, but if the blowback would be anything like it actually was later, in 2005, it’s possible that a late 2004 release could have tipped Ohio, and the election, to Kerry.
So let’s work forward from there, using events that were mostly independent of who was president (yeah, yeah butterfly effect and all that). This is all my best guess, and I’m sure plenty of it wouldn’t have happened this way, but it’s fun to think about anyway.
January, 2005, President John Kerry inherits two wars, a Republican congress, and a strong economy. Barack Obama is elected to the US Senate.
President Kerry does his best to wind down the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, but violence is increasing, and Kerry losses popularity. Over the next few years, most troops are replaced with an international peace-keeping force and the wars are mostly forgotten by Americans.
Kerry closes the CIA black sites, formally ends “enhanced interrogation” practices, and moves to close Guantanamo, but is unable to in the face of a hawkish Republican congress. They gain seats in 2006.
In 2007, the Kerry administration is rocked by scandal as news of VP John Edwards’ affair breaks. As the Great Recession officially begins in December 2007, Kerry’s reelection is thrown into doubt.
John McCain nabs the GOP nomination, setting up a fight between the most famous POW and the most famous Vietnam protester. To replace Edwards, Kerry picks a fresh face in the party, Barack Obama.
In this context, it’s harder to imagine McCain picking Palin. I think Romney — who wouldn’t hurt and might help in MI or MA — is more likely.
Partisan tribalism is on the rise, so the election is close, but McCain, perceived to be stronger on the economy, ultimately wins. As we get farther and farther out, it’s harder to make credible predictions.
But it’s not hard to imagine McCain winning two terms and ending his second with a divided or Democratic Congress. The 2016 election, to elect president no. 46, would look very different.
In this scenario, I doubt we get either a Obama or Trump presidency, ever. With Obama having been a Senator for 12 years, and a running mate on a losing ticket, it’s safe to say that he would not be able to run as an outsider.
And I imagine McCain continuing some sort of Kerry stimulus package, but not reviving the economy fully. Certainly not enough for Americans to vote for a third consecutive Republican term. There’s little room for a Trump.
What do you think, if Kerry had won, how would it have been different?
